The Pivot Report 2.26.2017
The Pivot Report February 26th, 2017
Each and every day in NBA DFS there is injury news that changes the landscape of the slate. On most nights you can find the edge you need to win by adjusting correctly to this news. The Pivot Report is designed to analyze the current injury news and correctly adjust the values of the effected players. To effectively do this we will need to leverage advanced statistics, game tape review, and critical thinking.
Injury Report: Kyle Lowry (Questionable)
Projected Starting Lineup: Joseph, DeRozan, Carroll, Ibaka, and Valanciunas
With Kyle Lowry out Cory Joseph would be inserted into the starting PG position. In 2 games missed this season by Lowry, Joseph is averaging just over 36 MPG with a USG% of 23.8 and an AST% of 18.5. While Joseph is a good NBA PG he is not Kyle Lowry and allows for more USG and assist opportunities to be spread around the other Toronto players. Demar DeRozan is the biggest beneficiary averaging 37 mins, a whopping 44.5% USG rate, and 26.8% AST Rate with the latter two numbers being well above his season averages. The secondary beneficiaries are Sierge Ibaka, Jonas Valanciunas, Demare Caroll, and Norman Powell. I hesitate to project major bumps in production for any of these guys as we have a small sample size with PJ Tucker and Ibaka in the rotation.
Cory Joseph (FD-$4,200 DK-$4,500)
w/ Lowry – 22 mins 18% USG 18% AST 14 FD Pts (Negative Value) 14 DK Pts (Negative Value)
w/o Lowry – 36 mins 23% USG 18% AST 26 FD Pts (Strong Value) 28 DK Pts (Strong Value)
Demar DeRozan (FD-$8,600 DK-$8,800)
w/ Lowry – 36 mins 34% USG 19% AST 38 FD Pts (Slight Negative Value) 39.5 DK Pts ( Slight Negative Value)
w/o Lowry – 37 mins 44% USG 25% AST 47 FD Pts (Strong Value) 49 DK Pts (Strong Value)